Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $205,721$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(645 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,811,454.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,811,454.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,310$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(53.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,149.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 87.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,149.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $104,563$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,822$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(439 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,203.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 68.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,203.6\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $55$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $157$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(89.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,898.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 127.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,898.7\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,222$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,965.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.8)}}\) (asimptote \(105,965.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,422$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(79.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,890.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 163.2)}}\) (asimptote \(32,890.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,562$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,432$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(246 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,129.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 85.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,129.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $182$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(10.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,065.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 159.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,065.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,024$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,463$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(35.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,950.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,950.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(0.265 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $724$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,948$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(20.1 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,856.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 85.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,856.4\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $133$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 72.9)}}\) (asimptote \(132.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,919$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,404$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,339.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 72.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,339.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $959$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{969.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(969.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,561$ on 2020-07-06
